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Inflation data released the Fed's interest rate cut in December, but it lit up a yellow light for next year. The latest inflation data may make the Fed more cautious about the pace of interest rate cut, but not now. The latest report shows that inflation in the United States in November was in line with expectations, so investors still generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. However, stubborn price pressure also confirms the concern that the progress towards the Fed's 2% target may stagnate. This concern may prompt officials to be more restrained in predicting the number of interest rate cuts in 2025, while waiting for more evidence that inflation will steadily reach the target. Fed policymakers will release new forecasts and interest rate outlook at the end of the policy meeting in Washington on December 17-18. "I think they can safely cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The market is ready for this, "said Loretta Mester, former president of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. "However, they must reconsider next year, because now it seems that the progress of inflation has really stagnated."Mexico's central bank's financial stability report: Mexico's financial system is flexible and stable. Stress tests have confirmed that the banking system as a whole has the ability to withstand major shocks. The capital and liquidity level of Mexico's banking system is higher than the minimum requirements of supervision. The economic environment is still complex and the risk factors are varied.Central Bank of Mexico: Pay close attention to the development of Mexico's financial market and will take necessary measures when necessary to maintain the stability of the financial system and the normal operation of the payment system.

The German Chancellor formally proposed a vote of confidence to the Parliament, and German Chancellor Angela Scholz formally proposed to the German Bundestag (the lower house of parliament) on the 11th that a vote of confidence will be held on the 16th. There are 733 members in the German Bundestag. In order to gain the trust of the Bundestag, Scholz must get more than 367 votes to remain in power. However, at present, only the parliamentary group of the German Social Democratic Party with 207 members has expressed its support for the Prime Minister. The parliamentary group of the Green Party, the ruling partner with 117 members, is expected to abstain in the vote of confidence, while the largest opposition Christian Democratic Union will not support Scholz. German media generally believe that Scholz will not be able to vote by confidence unless there is an accident. (Xinhua News Agency)The yield of 20/30-year US Treasury bonds rose by more than 5 basis points on the release date of US CPI inflation data. Investors also paid attention to oil prices and Yellen's new debt supply. At the end of new york on Wednesday (December 11), the yield of US 10-year benchmark government bonds rose by 3.89 basis points to 4.2652%. After the release of US CPI inflation data at 21:30 Beijing time, it plunged significantly and refreshed at 22:41 (the beginning of US stock market). Then it rebounded, and the results released at 02:00 showed that the auction of 10-year US bonds was strong, the bid multiple reached a new high since 2016, and the yield reached 4.2750% at 03:00. The yield of two-year US bonds rose by 1.02 basis points to 4.1532%, and reached 4.1741% at 21:17 (less than a quarter of an hour before the release of the US CPI data). After the data was released, it plunged, and reached 4.0969% at 22:41, and then gradually rebounded.Dollar deposits and wealth management are popular again. Experts suggest paying attention to exchange risk. Although it is in the cycle of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, dollar deposit products are still attractive to investors. Since December, a number of bank wealth management subsidiaries have intensively put on shelves US dollar wealth management products. Judging from the rate of return, the performance benchmark of some US dollar fixed-income wealth management products currently launched is close to 5%, but the performance benchmark of RMB wealth management products with the same risk level is mostly around 2%. According to the statistics of Puyi standard data, as of December 9, there were 1,312 surviving products in US dollar financing, and the surviving scale of US dollar financing reached 281.927 billion yuan, which has doubled from the surviving scale of 140.351 billion yuan at the end of December last year. In addition, although banks have previously lowered the interest rate of dollar deposit products, from the current point of view, the interest rate of some banks' dollar deposits remains above 4%, attracting many customers to buy. In addition, the annual interest rates of US dollar deposit products issued by banks such as Ningbo Bank Co., Ltd. and hengfeng bank Co., Ltd. are also between 3% and 4%. According to industry insiders, under the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the main reason for the high heat of dollar wealth management and dollar deposits is the exchange rate expectation of a strong dollar. If the market expects the US dollar to appreciate or remain stable, holding US dollar assets (such as US dollar wealth management and US dollar deposits) can benefit from the potential exchange rate appreciation even if interest rates fall. In addition, in order to diversify risks, some investors choose to allocate part of their funds to US dollar assets to realize diversification of asset allocation. (Securities Daily)

Fitch: Steady reserves, reduced liabilities, and prudent budget management have prepared American state and local governments for 2025.Brent crude oil rose by 2.00% in the day and is now reported at $73.31/barrel. WTI crude oil hit $70/barrel, up 2.67% in the day.National Bank of Canada: cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.45%.